The Sun’s Getting Real Low
1. "The sun's gettin' real low." That's the thought that bounced around my brainspace yesterday in the waning moments of a loss that sent the Washington Commanders to a 2-5-1 record. Of course, in the movie, that quote is used to subdue and calm the Incredible Hulk, which is where the analogy runs into problems. The Commanders are at least slightly less than incredible, and Hulk-like smashing has been anecdotal at best. The rage has mostly been coming from our side of the television screen.
2. The definition of "must-win" changes throughout the season. Some would argue—probably most rightfully—that a "must-win" game is only ever a game where your season is legitimately on the line. I have sliced that deli meat a little finer, instead arguing that through the middle of the season, teams have different possible season outcomes available to them.
For example, for the Commanders to have meaningfully expected to be part of the wild-card chase, that must-win game has almost certainly passed us by (and we lost it). The weak NFC East, however, has kept the Commanders in the playoff picture, offering the more traditional route to a playoff spot as division winners.
With the New York Giants and Dallas Cowboys winning yesterday, I think it's safe to say that Thursday Night Football is a must-win game for the Commanders. A loss to the Giants would give us six losses, with at least a few opponents still on the schedule against whom we will be significant underdogs.
3. The good news? There is a version of our Commanders team perfectly capable of knocking off the Giants to keep our postseason chances on life support. It's a team led by our franchise quarterback and buoyed by a defense currently tied for third in the league with a +7 turnover differential. It features an electric rookie linebacker (#52) proving on a weekly basis that he can be a force in the middle of the field for our defense for years to come.
J.J. McCarthy is limping into the contest for the Giants, and he's their third starting quarterback this season. Not for nothing, but we had this team dead to rights once already this season, and nothing about the Giants' year suggests they have morphed into a far better team. They just squeaked past the Eagles this week in less-than-impressive fashion.
The Commanders are capable of building a lead—and then the excitement begins.
4. The bad news? The "best version of ourselves" gets routinely clobbered by the "incredibly mediocre version of ourselves." The pre-snap penalties continue to be a huge problem. Despite having a top-ten ground game and Jayden Daniels pulling the trigger, are you at all shocked that we're dead last in the league in third-down conversion percentage (33-of-106)?
Further, we have displayed alarming inconsistency week to week, sometimes failing to really "get started" until the second half. The result for me is this maddening feeling of uber-confidence and palpable dread heading into this game.
I don't think it's being overly homeristic to envision a dominating performance over New York this week that would allow people to continue talking about us as "in the hunt." I don't think anyone is being overly pessimistic if they envision a game lost in the final minutes by a crucial error or miscue.
That's where we are in 2026, as evidenced by our current status holding the seventh overall draft pick. (No, we're not talking draft, but it is one of many midseason reference points for where we stand.)
5. I hate that this has become such a regular topic for us this season, and I will take a break from a long-winded discussion here AGAIN on it, but...MY KINGDOM FOR SOME SOUND GAME MANAGEMENT.
Each week seems to add another entry to the list of game management blunders that have contributed to our losses. At times, this complaint can come across as critical of a "style of play" philosophy that we have sometimes benefited from, which makes me look at least a little bit disingenuous.
At this point, though, we are beyond quibbling with "what the analytics say we should do" and have moved firmly into a place where we just don't seem to be making good decisions—or the right decisions.
Two throws short of the end zone on potential final plays of the game, when we needed to reach the end zone with no timeouts left, force us to compare and contrast previous last-second decisions this year. Through eight weeks, this story isn't getting any easier to explain away.
6. Since 2009, this column has been a place where I have tried my hardest not to "call it" until all the math checked out. We ain't there yet. Protocol dictates that until we are officially eliminated, we get to imagine victories piling up to change our fate.
The odds have become increasingly stacked against us, yet a path to the playoffs remains. It isn't just about our history of end-of-season runs to get us there. Despite the injuries, mistakes and coaching issues, the Washington Commanders still have a lot to say about their plans in January.
Unfortunately for the team, this might be the last week anyone is truly listening.
